← Back to Markets

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

View Rules

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Markets (6)

Sort by:

Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?

$511,852 vol $0 liquidity
YES
96¢
NO

Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?

$186,296 vol $0 liquidity
YES
95¢
NO

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

$127,765 vol $0 liquidity
12¢
YES
88¢
NO

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

$126,095 vol $0 liquidity
27¢
YES
73¢
NO

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

$106,456 vol $0 liquidity
40¢
YES
60¢
NO

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

$93,415 vol $0 liquidity
YES
92¢
NO

Event Stats

Total Volume $1,151,878
Liquidity $45,540
Markets 6
End Date 2026-12-31