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Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Markets (11)

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Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?

$1,078,690 vol $0 liquidity
YES
100¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

$1,002,076 vol $0 liquidity
36¢
YES
64¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?

$839,695 vol $0 liquidity
YES
100¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?

$431,464 vol $0 liquidity
YES
100¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11?

$410,444 vol $0 liquidity
YES
100¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?

$334,324 vol $0 liquidity
YES
100¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27?

$209,119 vol $0 liquidity
YES
100¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?

$157,520 vol $0 liquidity
YES
100¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?

$135,130 vol $0 liquidity
44¢
YES
56¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by January 31, 2026?

$0 vol $0 liquidity
50¢
YES
50¢
NO

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by Februray 28, 2026?

$0 vol $0 liquidity
50¢
YES
50¢
NO

Event Stats

Total Volume $4,598,461
Liquidity $37,051
Markets 11
End Date 2026-03-31